Fifth consecutive annual increase in insolvencies
According to the latest Allianz Trade forecast, global corporate bankruptcies are expected to rise by 5% in 2026, marking the fifth straight year of growth. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, the number of insolvencies is projected to reach 24,500 cases, up 1% year-on-year — the highest level in over 12 years.
“In 2026, the number of cases will reach its highest level in more than a decade,” the report notes.
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Trade tensions and startup risks weigh on outlook
CEO Aylin Somersan Coqui warned that trade conflicts and the potential for domino effects could soon test business resilience. The surge in new startups across Europe and the United States also brings a disproportionately high insolvency risk, the report adds.
Allianz Trade highlights another potential risk: a cooldown in AI investment, echoing the dot-com technology bubble of the early 2000s. In Germany, such market adjustments could add around 4,000 additional bankruptcies in 2026.
A moderate recovery is expected in 2027, particularly in Germany, where the number of insolvencies is forecast to fall by 4% to 23,500 cases, supported by government stimulus. Globally, Allianz Trade anticipates a 1% decline in bankruptcies the same year.
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